Dengue spatial analysis in Delhi (Analyse de l’Emergence de la Dengue Et Simulation Spatiale – AEDESS)

Dengue, a viral infection transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, is a rapidly growing public health problem in tropical and sub-tropical countries. An estimated 2.5 billion people live in affected areas according to the World Health Organisation (WHO). The annual number of dengue infections is estimated to be 70 million to 500 million according to the Dengue Vaccine Initiative (DVI). In recent years the average annual incidence of dengue related serious diseases in many tropical countries has been rising dramatically, with the infection becoming endemic in cities where its occurrence was once sporadic. Global emergence of dengue follows a common trajectory in tropical urban areas: densification and lack of urban infrastructure, increased connectivity arising from globalization and new human behaviours are the main factors responsible for the emergence of dengue worldwide.

Improved knowledge of dengue epidemiology will enable the identification of risk factors that may offer relatively simple, inexpensive options for intervention. In order to create new ways to improve our understanding of this disease, this Agence Nationale de Recherche (ANR) project has been designed with an interdisciplinary perspective: although biological, environmental and vectorial factors of risk are quite well known, the way they interact is not yet well defined. The project methodology is to generate through fieldwork studies detailed biological, environmental and social data to be integrated in a Geographical Information System (GIS).

Ultimately, several aims are associated with the project :

  • Observe the dengue virus diffusion at urban scale and its relation with the intra urban environment and human mobilities.
  • Produce new knowledge on dengue through serological and genetic studies with particular focus on defining the determinants of an asymptomatic outcome of infection.
  • Understand the relation and the interaction between society/individuals – environment vectors and biological factors – that lead to the endemisation of dengue in the hyper endemic city of Delhi.
  • Simulate the infectious dynamic through Agent based Model.

For further information about the project :

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